WS #10699

The dominant signal in this window is a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with a Singapore-flagged cargo ship attacked by Iran, per US officials. This follows earlier reports of a ship hit by an unknown projectile and IRGC Navy warnings ordering vessels to use Iranian routes. The attack undermines the nascent recovery in transit volumes (Kpler cited 70 crossings on June 24, up 105% d/d but still below the pre-conflict baseline of 130+). Separately, Iraq ordered the West Qurna-2 oil field to suspend production due to a lack of empty tankers, further tightening supply. These developments are likely to push oil prices higher, benefiting energy stocks (XOM, CVX) while pressuring airlines and consumer sectors. On the macro front, Fed's Goolsbee spoke on CNBC, expressing unease about inflation persistence and forward guidance, but the May PCE report is being interpreted as potentially marking peak inflation for this mini-cycle, with crude collapsing from ~$100 to ~$70. In tech, Apple shares plunged after hiking iPad and laptop prices, while Microsoft and Meta are in bear territory amid AI capex fatigue. A dark pool alert showed a large $476M SPY order, indicating institutional activity. The Venezuela earthquake death toll has risen to 188, but this is a humanitarian story with limited direct US market impact. The Strait of Hormuz situation is ESCALATING, with the new attack countering the prior narrative of a rapid reopening.