WS #10701

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is ESCALATING with new, specific threats from Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA). The PGSA announced that vessels using unauthorized routes will not be covered by safe passage guarantees or insurance, placing liability on owners, operators, and commanders. This follows the IRGC attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, per WSJ. The NYT reports Iran threatens ships in the Strait as Marco Rubio meets Gulf leaders. Bloomberg reports Trump seeks $88 billion for Iran war. These developments increase the probability of sustained oil supply disruption. Separately, Iraq ordered the West Qurna-2 oil field to suspend production due to a lack of empty tankers, compounding supply concerns. In contrast, a counter-signal emerges: the May PCE report may mark peak inflation as oil prices have collapsed from ~$100 to ~$70, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast pointing to June headline PCE cooling to 3.9%. This could dampen the bearish macro thesis driven by inflation fears. In corporate news, MSTR dropped to a 52-week low below $90, and Nike is down 75% from its peak. Ares Private Credit Fund caps redemptions after 14% seek to exit, signaling stress in private credit markets. On the positive side, Google launched a dedicated Finance app on Android with AI features, and Southwest flew its first aircraft equipped with Starlink.