WS #10732

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, directly countering the previous de-escalation narrative. A YouTube post claims Iran has struck a cargo ship and reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, which would reverse the earlier resumption of tanker traffic and oil price decline. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Strait of Hormuz transit and Iran MOU withdrawal, indicating heightened geopolitical risk. Separately, European equity futures are falling (Eurostoxx -0.4%, DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.4%) and US futures are slipping (S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.7%), with China's tech indices set to open down ~2% (CSI 300 telecom, SSE STAR chip index). This suggests a risk-off tone driven by the Middle East escalation and ongoing Asia tech rout. The France seizure of a Russian shadow fleet tanker adds to geopolitical tensions. Salesforce Q1 earnings showed strong AI monetization (Agentforce ARR +205%), a bullish signal for CRM and AI software. The Epstein files legal development (DOJ ordered to release files) is ongoing but lacks new data.