WS #10757

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions, with multiple sources reporting missile alerts in the UAE, a UAE warning of possible aerial attack (later retracted as safe), and an Iranian attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by NBC, Al Jazeera, and multiple social media accounts. The UAE foreign minister stressed the need to protect maritime corridors and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while the GCC welcomed an Oman plan to evacuate stranded sailors. This escalation counters the previous de-escalation narrative and is likely to push oil prices higher, benefiting energy stocks and hurting airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, the tech selloff continues with the S&P 500 heading for its longest losing streak since August, the Magnificent Seven ETF seeing over $1 billion in outflows, and chip stocks resuming their slide. However, there is a notable MAG7 carve-out: Microsoft (MSFT) is showing relative strength, flying +10% in premarket and holding up better than peers. Options flow data shows positive divergence in AVGO, ADBE, CRM, META, and BABA, suggesting institutional positioning for a tech bounce. Bitcoin has dropped to $59K, and Strategy's STRC hit a new all-time low. The EU plans a 15% tax on aluminium scrap exports, which could impact aluminium producers and scrap exporters. SpaceX's bond sale is weakening sharply in the secondary market, and the company plans to launch a Starlink mobile service, which could disrupt US telecoms. Finally, a small aircraft crashed into Beijing's CITIC Tower, which may impact Chinese aviation and property stocks but has limited US market implications.