WS #10780

The dominant signal in this window is the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, which is now confirmed by multiple sources (Axios, Israeli ambassador, Rubio) and represents a de-escalation of a key geopolitical risk. This is a carry-forward from the previous window but with new confirmation. Separately, OpenAI's decision to delay its IPO until 2027 is a high-significance development for tech and AI-exposed stocks, with direct implications for SoftBank and the broader IPO pipeline. Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on digital services taxes adds trade war escalation risk for big tech. The Venezuela earthquake death toll rising to 920 is a humanitarian crisis but limited direct US market impact. Oil prices are falling as Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease, countering the previous oil supply crisis narrative. The AI industry narrative is shifting: OpenAI's GPT-5.6 rollout is restricted to government-approved partners, and the company is delaying its IPO, while the broader market is questioning the 'more tokens = better' paradigm.