WS #10898

The dominant theme in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with a new development: Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service storming Baghdad's Green Zone near the US Embassy to arrest Iranian-aligned politicians. This represents a significant escalation, moving the conflict from direct US-Iran strikes to targeting Iranian proxies in Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with multiple Polymarket contracts referencing shipping disruptions. Separately, a GDELT report indicates Trump is intensifying tariff pressure on the EU over digital services taxes, which could impact tech stocks. The Venezuela earthquake aftermath continues but is a humanitarian story with limited direct US market impact. Bitcoin and crypto-related Polymarket contracts show continued selling pressure, but this is a crypto-specific signal. The dominant narrative is the escalating Iran conflict, which is bullish for oil and defense stocks and bearish for airlines and consumer discretionary. The Iraq raid is a new escalation point that could further disrupt oil supply and regional stability.