WS #14117

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightening. Trump's vow to declare the strait US territory is corroborated across multiple sources (CNN, ANI, JawaPos, Libero, etc.), and Iran's defiant response is equally widespread. Oil prices are rallying on tanker attacks and stalled talks, with Brent settling at $88.52 (+1.67%) and WTI at $82.40 (+1.42%), both on track for weekly gains of ~6% and ~5.4%. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has collapsed to just two vessels on Friday, down from a monthly average of 12, and pre-war levels of 130+. This is a high-significance escalation with direct implications for energy (XOM, CVX), airlines (DAL, UAL), and refiners (MPC, PSX). Counter-signals are absent; the US has threatened indefinite naval blockade and increased economic pressure, while Iran has not decided to resume talks. Separately, US retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, sharply reducing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to ~31-33%, which is supporting gold (up 0.7% to $4,379.95) and pressuring the dollar. This macro data point is a counter to the prevailing hawkish Fed narrative and could support rate-sensitive sectors. In corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway's 13F confirms a major increase in Alphabet stake (now third-largest holding) and adds to Delta Air Lines, a signal of confidence in these names. Reddit's inclusion in the S&P 500 is confirmed, with the stock surging 12.6%. Anthropic's IPO valuation is reportedly based on a $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, which could influence AI sentiment. Apple is reportedly developing its own China-specific AI model with Alibaba, a strategic shift that could impact its competitive position in China. Mastercard is experiencing a global outage, which could affect payment processing and sentiment for the stock.