WS #14187

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to escalate. The 60-day ceasefire deadline expires Monday, and the White House acknowledges key goals, including reopening Hormuz, will not be met. Iran is formalizing its control over the strait through legislation and a joint shipping map with Oman, while Trump's declaration of the strait as US territory is rejected by Tehran. Oil prices are hovering around $87 Brent, with US gas prices up 29% year-over-year, pressuring consumers and complicating central bank inflation decisions. The AI-driven bond yield surge narrative persists, with Goldman Sachs warning of an 'earnings bubble' in tech despite no valuation bubble, and Microsoft's Maia 300 chip plans targeting NVIDIA's dominance. These themes are stable-to-escalating, with no counter-signals observed. Other developments include Nvidia's potential $3B investment in SB Energy for OpenAI data centers, Apple's blocked purchase of Chinese memory chips, and a major Ukrainian drone attack on Russia, which could have second-order effects on energy and defense sectors.