WS #14196

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, which is STABLE but with a notable new development: Iran and Oman have finalized a joint shipping route map for the strait, a potential de-escalation signal. However, Iran's leadership continues to reject Trump's claim of US territory over the strait, with senior officials issuing sharp warnings, and the 60-day negotiation period is set to end Monday with little progress. Oil prices remain elevated (WTI ~$82.40, Brent ~$88.52), and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, raising concerns about cavern integrity and future response capacity. This is a counter-signal to the prevailing escalation thesis, as the Oman deal could pave the way for resuming traffic, but the lack of US participation and continued blockade enforcement keep the risk premium high.