WS #14208
Dark oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running above 4 million bpd, possibly up to 9 million bpd, keeping Brent in the $80-90 range and preventing a supply shock. Trump's pledge to declare Hormuz a US territory is dismissed as rhetorical by Iran and analysts, with no policy shift, so it does not materially change the risk calculus. Israel strikes Lebanon killing 11, including a senior Hezbollah commander, ahead of the Monday ceasefire expiration, adding geopolitical risk but not yet market-moving.
Covert oil flows through Hormuz
Dark oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running above 4 million bpd, possibly up to 9 million bpd, keeping Brent in the $80-90 range and preventing a supply shock.
Trump's pledge to declare Hormuz a US territory is dismissed as rhetorical by Iran and analysts, with no policy shift, so it does not materially change the risk calculus.
Israel strikes Lebanon killing 11, including a senior Hezbollah commander, ahead of the Monday ceasefire expiration, adding geopolitical risk but not yet market-moving.