WS #14222

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict with the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which is ESCALATING. Iran has vowed to keep the strait shut until the US accepts defeat, and Trump has told Americans to expect high gas prices. Oil prices are firm, with Brent up 6% and WTI up 5.4% on the week, and no tankers moved through the strait on Friday. This is corroborated by multiple sources including GDELT, Seeking Alpha, and Polymarket. The US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles (ATACMS and PrSM) during the five-month war, raising readiness concerns and potentially boosting defense stocks. Additionally, Trump has ordered a substantial reduction in US-South Korea military exercises, citing cost and his relationship with Kim Jong Un, which could have geopolitical implications but limited direct market impact. In corporate news, Stripe's $7B+ deal to buy OpenRouter is confirmed by Hacker News and Bloomberg, and Databricks has hit a $190B valuation, benefiting Nvidia and other investors. Meta's fair value has been slashed to $754 on AI cost concerns, and Bitcoin has dropped below $63K, dragging crypto-linked stocks. The Fed's inflation data (cooler PPI) has lifted the S&P 500 to a record high, but Goldman Sachs notes structural Treasury supply keeps long-term yields elevated.