WS #14247

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with the 60-day MOU expiring and Iran issuing an ultimatum to the US, demanding removal of a naval blockade under threat of war expansion. Trump has again threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes with Hormuz operations, and Iran claims to have reached an agreement with Oman on a transit route map, though it remains unclear if this meets US criteria. Hormuz traffic has reportedly fallen 90%, and oil prices remain elevated, with Brent near $89 and WTI around $83. Canada's July CPI rose to 3.0% (vs 2.9% expected) on higher gasoline prices, reinforcing the inflationary impact of the conflict. The EU plans its most far-reaching sanctions against Russia, targeting ~1,600 entities, which could tighten energy markets further. These developments are corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters, Al Jazeera, GDELT, and BBC, indicating high significance. The conflict narrative is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window.