WS #14264
Iran seizes tanker and talks with Oman stall, but covert 'dark' tanker shipments through Hormuz are keeping oil prices in the $80-90 range, dampening the risk premium. Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) have gained over 80% in 2026 on geopolitical crack spreads, but history suggests negative forward returns when 41% above 150-day MA.
Strait of Hormuz disruption and dark oil trade
Iran seizes tanker and talks with Oman stall, but covert 'dark' tanker shipments through Hormuz are keeping oil prices in the $80-90 range, dampening the risk premium.
Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) have gained over 80% in 2026 on geopolitical crack spreads, but history suggests negative forward returns when 41% above 150-day MA.