WS #14280

The dominant theme remains Middle East escalation, now with fresh, market-moving data points. Iran has ruled out extending the 60-day memorandum of understanding with the US, and has seized a UAE oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding fees and authorization for passage. This directly threatens global oil supply, pushing Brent above $91 and WTI to $84.50, with energy stocks (XOM, CVX, SLB, OIH) rallying sharply while airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer names face pressure. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, the highest since 2007, driven by inflation concerns and AI-related debt issuance, pressuring long-duration assets and growth stocks. In parallel, Anthropic's revenue run rate of $65B (Q2 revenue $11.5B, 14x YoY) is driving a rotation: AI hardware (NVDA, AMD, MU, SNDK) surges, while software names (NOW, CRM, TTD, SOUN) sell off on fears of AI-driven disintermediation. Nvidia's $105B guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center and $1.5B SB Energy investment confirm the AI infrastructure capex supercycle, supporting NVDA and related suppliers. The US-Iran truce expiry and Hormuz tanker seizure are escalating, with no counter-signals; the only offset is the potential for diplomatic talks (Netanyahu-Kushner on Gaza) but this is not yet market-moving. The Fed is expected to hold rates, but the 30-year yield spike is a key risk to equity valuations.