WS #10902

The dominant signal in this window is a major de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, directly countering the previous escalation narrative. Iran's Foreign Minister announced a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war capacity within 30 days under a US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This is corroborated by multiple sources including a Bluesky post from a priority account and a GDELT article detailing Iran's IRGC warning about unauthorized transits, which paradoxically confirms the existence of a new framework. The announcement acts as a powerful counter-signal to the previous bearish oil/defense thesis, potentially reversing the recent oil price surge and alleviating pressure on airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, Ukraine continues its drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries, with strikes on Slavyansk and Yaroslavl confirmed by multiple sources, sustaining upward pressure on oil prices from the supply side. The European heatwave continues to cause disruption and fatalities, but no new market-moving data points emerged. The AI bust risk warning from BIS is a notable macro signal that could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for AI-exposed names like NVDA.