WS #10903

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of Ukraine's drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries, with multiple sources confirming strikes on the Krasnodar region and Zelensky confirming attacks on two refineries. This sustains upward pressure on oil prices from the supply side, benefiting energy stocks while pressuring airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, a new development emerges: Google has imposed limits on Meta's use of its Gemini AI models due to capacity constraints, as reported by the Financial Times. This is a significant tech sector signal that could weigh on Meta's AI ambitions and highlight computing power bottlenecks across the industry. The BIS warning on AI 'exuberance' risks (carried forward from previous window) remains unrefuted and continues to pose a bearish overhang on AI-exposed tech names. The US-Iran de-escalation narrative from the previous window is now being questioned by an Al Jazeera report suggesting the US is 'trying to find its way out of MOU with Iran,' introducing uncertainty into the previously bullish oil counter-signal. European heatwave continues but no new market-moving data points emerged. The Musk/Grok 4.5 private beta at SpaceX and Tesla is a notable positive for Tesla's AI narrative but lacks corroboration beyond a single source.